Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 176.441482 214.996449 263.191686 329.101453 418.911685 5.401725e+02 7.221083e+02
2025-02-23 131.723298 175.280637 236.970660 334.786516 494.529484 7.631639e+02 1.297603e+03
2025-03-02 104.197699 146.599513 211.745069 326.172127 539.965233 9.698218e+02 2.079536e+03
2025-03-09 86.656093 126.958400 192.733132 317.795265 578.663345 1.192738e+03 3.246740e+03
2025-03-16 73.653291 111.208235 175.361828 305.132821 601.307623 1.401321e+03 4.851179e+03
2025-03-23 69.358321 108.667134 179.749120 335.474783 736.805613 2.061214e+03 1.085190e+04
2025-03-30 62.922333 101.123480 173.004185 339.804250 811.050413 2.643735e+03 2.132029e+04
2025-04-06 58.611830 96.608013 171.022306 354.285684 926.011170 3.619326e+03 5.519477e+04
2025-04-13 53.264204 89.302508 161.833126 348.022483 972.122467 4.387178e+03 1.293789e+05
2025-04-20 51.679402 88.957390 167.249208 382.037543 1193.831181 7.041143e+03 1.546353e+06
2025-04-27 49.820963 87.755099 170.489150 411.642137 1434.488806 1.137484e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 47.691476 85.669968 171.243352 434.427838 1677.210464 1.829339e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 45.099565 82.449379 169.120544 449.255884 1917.185975 2.998711e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 42.558735 79.025393 165.906588 459.773020 2160.907684 5.079243e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 39.388504 73.822513 157.172410 447.043237 2234.491807 7.087873e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 36.594886 69.162455 149.131596 434.403254 2301.022323 1.004245e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 33.890274 64.427097 140.169027 415.283777 2294.760638 1.299153e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 33.577126 65.165703 146.377008 461.324214 2995.502307 6.370585e+05 NaN
2025-06-22 32.056639 62.883726 143.634869 467.945063 3330.284585 2.325882e+06 NaN
2025-06-29 31.070712 61.775114 144.135465 490.179007 3951.455345 8.466006e+07 NaN
2025-07-06 29.377248 58.769830 138.479563 480.545959 4117.564013 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.206104 59.509350 144.428889 533.168488 5567.695358 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 28.809847 59.635316 148.516321 579.563377 7341.590406 NaN NaN